Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barrio México vs Municipal Liberia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
1 – 2
Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
10/27/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 16Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barrio México55%
×Draw23%
Municipal Liberia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.82
Municipal Liberia
1.08

Barrio México creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.09
Municipal Liberia
1.35

allows per match

Barrio México
0.80
Municipal Liberia
1.55

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Municipal Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
78%
Barrio México or Municipal Liberia
77%
Draw or Municipal Liberia
45%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
31%
Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
84%
Barrio México 2+ goals
54%
Barrio México 3+ goals
27%
Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
66%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
29%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
71%
Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.82

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Barrio México scores more
55%
level
23%
Municipal Liberia scores more
22%

Barrio México at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrio México vs Municipal Liberia

Municipal Liberia beat Barrio México 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.