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Barrio México vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
4 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
S. Cardenas 86'
A. Salguero 79'
R. Mora 44'
E. Zuniga 19'
3/26/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 10Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barrio México59%
×Draw22%
Aserri FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.88
Aserri FC
0.94

Barrio México creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.09
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Barrio México
0.80
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
82%
Barrio México or Aserri FC
78%
Draw or Aserri FC
41%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
35%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
85%
Barrio México 2+ goals
56%
Barrio México 3+ goals
29%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
61%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
24%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
76%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barrio México scores more
59%
level
22%
Aserri FC scores more
18%

Barrio México at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
E. Zuniga
44'
R. Mora
79'
A. Salguero
86'
S. Cardenas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Barrio México 4–0 Aserri FC

Barrio México beat Aserri FC 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 26, 2021.

Goals: E. Zuniga (19'), R. Mora (44'), A. Salguero (79'), S. Cardenas (86').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.