Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aserri FC vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
0 – 0
Barrio México
Barrio México
10/15/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Aserri FC37%
×Draw26%
Barrio México37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.35
Barrio México
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 43 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
63%
Aserri FC or Barrio México
74%
Draw or Barrio México
63%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
17%
Barrio México wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
74%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
39%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
15%
Barrio México 1+ goals
74%
Barrio México 2+ goals
38%
Barrio México 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
51%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aserri FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Barrio México scores more
37%

Aserri FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 0–0 Barrio México

Aserri FC and Barrio México drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio ST Center in San José.