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Barretos vs Vocem — League #1062 2026

Barretos
Barretos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vocem
Vocem
Tito 34'
H. Saldanha Goncalves 90'
3/20/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Antônio Gomes Martins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barretos36%
×Draw27%
Vocem37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barretos
1.20
Vocem
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Barretos
1.40
Vocem
1.67

allows per match

Barretos
0.80
Vocem
1.00

finishing

Barretos+0.00on par
Vocem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barretos ↓

Vocem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barretos or draw
63%
Barretos or Vocem
73%
Draw or Vocem
64%

Winning margin

Barretos wins by 2+
15%
Vocem wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barretos 1+ goals
70%
Barretos 2+ goals
34%
Barretos 3+ goals
12%
Vocem 1+ goals
71%
Vocem 2+ goals
35%
Vocem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barretos (draw refunded)
49%
Vocem (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barretos at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Vocem away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barretos attack 1.40 + Vocem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vocem attack 1.67 + Barretos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barretos scores more
36%
level
27%
Vocem scores more
37%

Vocem at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vocem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Tito
90'
H. Saldanha Goncalves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Barretos 1–1 Vocem

Barretos and Vocem drew 1-1 in League #1062 on March 20, 2024.

Goals: Tito (34'), H. Saldanha Goncalves (90').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Gomes Martins in Barretos, São Paulo.