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Barretos vs Nacional SP — League #1062 2026

Barretos
Barretos
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional SP
Nacional SP
Unknown 90', 67' (pen), 61'
Unknown 24'
2/21/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Antônio Gomes Martins

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Barretos52%
×Draw26%
Nacional SP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barretos
1.52
Nacional SP
0.87

Barretos creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barretos
1.40
Nacional SP
0.94

allows per match

Barretos
0.80
Nacional SP
1.65

finishing

Barretos+0.00on par
Nacional SP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barretos ↓

Nacional SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barretos or draw
78%
Barretos or Nacional SP
74%
Draw or Nacional SP
48%

Winning margin

Barretos wins by 2+
27%
Nacional SP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Barretos 1+ goals
78%
Barretos 2+ goals
45%
Barretos 3+ goals
20%
Nacional SP 1+ goals
58%
Nacional SP 2+ goals
22%
Nacional SP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Barretos (draw refunded)
71%
Nacional SP (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barretos at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Nacional SP away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barretos attack 1.40 + Nacional SP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nacional SP attack 0.94 + Barretos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barretos scores more
52%
level
26%
Nacional SP scores more
22%

Barretos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barretos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
61'
67'
Penalty
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Barretos 3–1 Nacional SP

Barretos beat Nacional SP 3-1 in League #1062 on February 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (24', 61', 67' pen, 90').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Gomes Martins in Barretos, São Paulo.