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Barreda vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barreda
Barreda
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
2/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Barreda50%
×Draw24%
Ribamontán al Mar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barreda
1.67
Ribamontán al Mar
1.13

Barreda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 28 away

creates per match

Barreda
1.33
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Barreda
1.30
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barreda or draw
74%
Barreda or Ribamontán al Mar
76%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
50%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+
27%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals
81%
Barreda 2+ goals
50%
Barreda 3+ goals
23%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
68%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
31%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)
66%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barreda scores more
50%
level
24%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
26%

Barreda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Barreda 5–1 Ribamontán al Mar

Barreda beat Ribamontán al Mar 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Solvay in Torrelavega.