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Barreda vs Naval — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barreda
Barreda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Naval
Naval
10/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Barreda40%
×Draw26%
Naval34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barreda
1.39
Naval
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 64 away

creates per match

Barreda
1.33
Naval
1.23

allows per match

Barreda
1.30
Naval
1.44

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par
Naval+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Naval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barreda or draw
66%
Barreda or Naval
74%
Draw or Naval
60%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+
19%
Naval wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals
75%
Barreda 2+ goals
40%
Barreda 3+ goals
16%
Naval 1+ goals
72%
Naval 2+ goals
36%
Naval 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)
54%
Naval (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Naval away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Naval defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Naval attack 1.23 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barreda scores more
40%
level
26%
Naval scores more
34%

Barreda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Barreda 3–1 Naval

Barreda beat Naval 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Solvay in Torrelavega.