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Barreda vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barreda
Barreda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
10/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Barreda26%
×Draw26%
Gimnástica Torrelavega48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barreda
1.04
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.49

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Barreda
1.33
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Barreda
1.30
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barreda or draw
52%
Barreda or Gimnástica Torrelavega
74%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
74%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+
10%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals
65%
Barreda 2+ goals
28%
Barreda 3+ goals
9%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
77%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
44%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)
36%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barreda scores more
26%
level
26%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
48%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barreda vs Gimnástica Torrelavega

Barreda beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.