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Barreda vs Cayón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barreda
Barreda
CANC
00:00
Cayón
Cayón
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Barreda33%
×Draw26%
Cayón41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barreda
1.21
Cayón
1.38

Cayón creates 14% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barreda
1.33
Cayón
1.46

allows per match

Barreda
1.30
Cayón
1.08

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par
Cayón+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Cayón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barreda or draw
59%
Barreda or Cayón
74%
Draw or Cayón
67%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+
14%
Cayón wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals
70%
Barreda 2+ goals
34%
Barreda 3+ goals
12%
Cayón 1+ goals
75%
Cayón 2+ goals
40%
Cayón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)
45%
Cayón (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Cayón away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Cayón defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cayón attack 1.46 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barreda scores more
33%
level
26%
Cayón scores more
41%

Cayón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barreda face Cayón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Barreda hosting Cayón. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barreda host Cayón at Estadio Solvay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.