Barreda 0–2 Cartes: Result & Stats

Barreda

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cartes

1/29/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Barreda51%

×Draw26%

Cartes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarredaExpected goals in this matchCartes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.98

Barreda

1.55

Cartes

0.98

Barreda creates 58% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

1.33

creates per match

0.66

1.30

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Barreda

1.33

Cartes

0.66

allows per match

Barreda

1.30

Cartes

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par

Cartes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Cartes →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barreda or draw

76%

Barreda or Cartes

74%

Draw or Cartes

49%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+

26%

Cartes wins by 2+

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals

79%

Barreda 2+ goals

46%

Barreda 3+ goals

20%

Cartes 1+ goals

62%

Cartes 2+ goals

26%

Cartes 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)

68%

Cartes (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Cartes away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Cartes defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cartes attack 0.66 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barreda scores more

51%

level

26%

Cartes scores more

24%

Barreda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff