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Barranquilla vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Leones FC
Leones FC
2/16/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 3Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Barranquilla43%
×Draw26%
Leones FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.45
Leones FC
1.20

Barranquilla creates 21% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 127 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Leones FC
1.29

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
69%
Barranquilla or Leones FC
74%
Draw or Leones FC
57%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
21%
Leones FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
77%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
42%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
18%
Leones FC 1+ goals
70%
Leones FC 2+ goals
34%
Leones FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
58%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barranquilla scores more
43%
level
26%
Leones FC scores more
31%

Barranquilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barranquilla 2–2 Leones FC

Barranquilla and Leones FC drew 2-2 in Primera B on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.