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Barranquilla vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
PST
20:00
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
8/22/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 6Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Barranquilla38%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.14
Fortaleza FC
1.04

Barranquilla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 96 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.17
Fortaleza FC
0.98

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.10
Fortaleza FC
1.10

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
67%
Barranquilla or Fortaleza FC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
62%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
16%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
68%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
32%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
11%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
65%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
28%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
54%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.10 · 127 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.17 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fortaleza FC attack 0.98 + Barranquilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barranquilla scores more
38%
level
29%
Fortaleza FC scores more
33%

Barranquilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barranquilla face Fortaleza FC (Primera B)

Primera B returns with Barranquilla hosting Fortaleza FC. Match starts August 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barranquilla host Fortaleza FC at Estadio Romelio Martínez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.