Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barranquilla vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Depor FC
Depor FC
7/13/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Barranquilla47%
×Draw27%
Depor FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.42
Depor FC
1.00

Barranquilla creates 42% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 128 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Depor FC
0.88

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Depor FC
1.63

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
73%
Barranquilla or Depor FC
73%
Draw or Depor FC
53%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
23%
Depor FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
76%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
41%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
17%
Depor FC 1+ goals
63%
Depor FC 2+ goals
26%
Depor FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
64%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barranquilla scores more
47%
level
27%
Depor FC scores more
27%

Barranquilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barranquilla vs Depor FC

Depor FC beat Barranquilla 2-1 in Primera B on July 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martinez in Barranquilla.