Barranquilla 0–1 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Barranquilla

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

J. Perez 90'

6/15/2025

Copa Colombia · 1st Round - 5Estadio Romelio Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barranquilla39%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarranquillaExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Barranquilla

1.29

Alianza Valledupar

1.17

Barranquilla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Barranquilla

1.00

Alianza Valledupar

1.00

allows per match

Barranquilla

1.33

Alianza Valledupar

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw

66%

Barranquilla or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

61%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+

18%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals

72%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

37%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

14%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

33%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

54%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.00 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.00 + Barranquilla defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barranquilla scores more

39%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

34%

Barranquilla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

J. Perez

Barranquilla

Alianza

Manager: G. Méndez

Manager: Hubert Antonio Bodhert Barrios