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Barracas Central vs A. Italiano — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Barracas Central
Barracas Central
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
A. Italiano
A. Italiano
R. Bogarin 42'
F. Loyola 90'
4/29/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Florencio Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barracas Central37%
×Draw32%
A. Italiano31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barracas Central
1.00
A. Italiano
0.89

Barracas Central creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Barracas Central
0.67
A. Italiano
0.78

allows per match

Barracas Central
1.00
A. Italiano
1.33

finishing

Barracas Central+0.00on par
A. Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

A. Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw
69%
Barracas Central or A. Italiano
68%
Draw or A. Italiano
63%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+
14%
A. Italiano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals
63%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
26%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
8%
A. Italiano 1+ goals
59%
A. Italiano 2+ goals
22%
A. Italiano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)
54%
A. Italiano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 0.67 + A. Italiano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

A. Italiano attack 0.78 + Barracas Central defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barracas Central scores more
37%
level
32%
A. Italiano scores more
31%

Barracas Central at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barracas Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
R. BogarinBarracas CentralBarracas Central · M
8.5

Match Events

40'
Norberto Briasco
42'
R. Bogarin↳ G. Maroni
46'
D. Coelho← V. Zenteno
48'
Esteban Matus
51'
Rodrigo Insúa
62'
F. Loyola← M. Fuentes
63'
G. Morales← G. Maroni
64'
D. Miloc← I. Tapia
64'
E. Taborda← J. Candia
70'
Marcelo OrtízPenalty confirmed
85'
R. Rebolledo← E. Ferrario
85'
M. Sandoval← P. Guajardo
90+1'
Gonzalo Morales
90+6'
Diego Coelho
90'
I. A. Guaraz← R. Bogarin
90'
J. Ahumada← R. Cabral
90'
F. Loyola↳ R. Rebolledo

Possession

32%Barracas

Shots

9Barracas

Pass accuracy

41%Barracas

Statistics

BarracasA.
Overview
32%Possession68%
9Total Shots8
0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.25
7Corners3
16Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target5
5Off Target3
1Blocked0
6Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
32%Possession68%
195Total Passes414
115Accurate Passes355
59%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
-0.24Goals Prevented-0.24
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Barracas Central 1–1 A. Italiano

Barracas Central and A. Italiano drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 29, 2026.

Goals: R. Bogarin (42'), F. Loyola (90').

A. Italiano controlled possession (68%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Sola in Buenos Aires.