Barra 1–2 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats | Serie C

Barra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Santa Cruz

Renan Bernabe 53'

Quirino 36'

Matheus Vinicius 24'

7/12/2026

Serie C · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barra36%

×Draw29%

Santa Cruz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarraExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.13

Barra

1.15

Santa Cruz

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 48 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Barra

1.29

Santa Cruz

0.96

allows per match

Barra

1.29

Santa Cruz

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barra+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barra ↓

Santa Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barra or draw

65%

Barra or Santa Cruz

71%

Draw or Santa Cruz

64%

Winning margin

Barra wins by 2+

15%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barra 1+ goals

68%

Barra 2+ goals

32%

Barra 3+ goals

11%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

31%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barra (draw refunded)

51%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barra at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barra attack 1.29 + Santa Cruz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Santa Cruz attack 0.96 + Barra defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barra scores more

36%

level

29%

Santa Cruz scores more

35%

Barra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Barra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Matheus Vinicius

36'

Quirino

46'

Betinho← Natan Costa

46'

Renan Bernabe← Vinicius Popo

53'

Renan Bernabe

55'

Marcelinho

55'

62'

Eron← Quirino

62'

Nilton← Ronald

66'

Matheuzinho← Cleo Silva

66'

Da Rocha← Vava Franca

75'

Da Rocha

77'

Silva← Renato

77'

Thiago Ennes← Alex Ruan

83'

William Alves

90'

Lucas Vargas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff