Barra 1–1 Novo Hamburgo: Result & Stats | Serie D

Barra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Novo Hamburgo

4/28/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Barra53%

×Draw29%

Novo Hamburgo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarraExpected goals in this matchNovo Hamburgo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.66

Barra

1.32

Novo Hamburgo

0.66

Barra creates 100% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.42

creates per match

0.78

0.53

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Barra

1.42

Novo Hamburgo

0.78

allows per match

Barra

0.53

Novo Hamburgo

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barra+0.00on par

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barra ↓

Novo Hamburgo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Barra or draw

81%

Barra or Novo Hamburgo

71%

Draw or Novo Hamburgo

47%

Winning margin

Barra wins by 2+

25%

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barra 1+ goals

73%

Barra 2+ goals

38%

Barra 3+ goals

15%

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals

48%

Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals

14%

Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Barra (draw refunded)

74%

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barra at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barra attack 1.42 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Barra defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barra scores more

53%

level

29%

Novo Hamburgo scores more

19%

Barra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff