Barra 1–0 Cianorte: Result & Stats | Serie D

Barra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cianorte

Natan 90'

9/6/2025

Serie D · Quarter-finalsEstádio do Barra Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Barra51%

×Draw32%

Cianorte18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarraExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.56

Barra

1.16

Cianorte

0.56

Barra creates 107% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

0.88

0.25

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Barra

1.50

Cianorte

0.88

allows per match

Barra

0.25

Cianorte

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barra+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barra ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Barra or draw

82%

Barra or Cianorte

68%

Draw or Cianorte

49%

Winning margin

Barra wins by 2+

22%

Cianorte wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Barra 1+ goals

69%

Barra 2+ goals

32%

Barra 3+ goals

11%

Cianorte 1+ goals

43%

Cianorte 2+ goals

11%

Cianorte 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Barra (draw refunded)

74%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 12 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barra attack 1.50 + Cianorte defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cianorte attack 0.88 + Barra defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barra scores more

51%

level

32%

Cianorte scores more

18%

Barra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Natan

Barra

Cianorte

Manager: Eduardo Souza

Manager: Renato Peixe