Barra SC U20 8–0 Internacional SC U20

Barra SC U20

FT

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Internacional SC U20

3/31/2024

Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 2CFT Barra FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Barra SC U2092%

×Draw6%

Internacional SC U202%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barra SC U20Expected goals in this matchInternacional SC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.05

0.60

Barra SC U20

4.05

Internacional SC U20

0.60

Barra SC U20 creates 575% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

2.90

creates per match

0.40

0.80

allows per match

5.20

creates per match

Barra SC U20

2.90

Internacional SC U20

0.40

allows per match

Barra SC U20

0.80

Internacional SC U20

5.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barra SC U20+0.00on par

Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barra SC U20 ↓

Internacional SC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Barra SC U20 or draw

98%

Barra SC U20 or Internacional SC U20

94%

Draw or Internacional SC U20

8%

Winning margin

Barra SC U20 wins by 2+

80%

Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Barra SC U20 1+ goals

98%

Barra SC U20 2+ goals

90%

Barra SC U20 3+ goals

74%

Internacional SC U20 1+ goals

45%

Internacional SC U20 2+ goals

12%

Internacional SC U20 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Barra SC U20 (draw refunded)

98%

Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barra SC U20 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Internacional SC U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barra SC U20 attack 2.90 + Internacional SC U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 4.05

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Barra SC U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Barra SC U20 scores more

92%

level

6%

Internacional SC U20 scores more

2%

Barra SC U20 at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Barra SC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff