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Barquereño vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barquereño
Barquereño
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Barquereño51%
×Draw23%
Ribamontán al Mar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barquereño
1.79
Ribamontán al Mar
1.19

Barquereño creates 50% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 28 away

creates per match

Barquereño
1.58
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Barquereño
1.41
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw
75%
Barquereño or Ribamontán al Mar
77%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
49%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+
28%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals
83%
Barquereño 2+ goals
53%
Barquereño 3+ goals
26%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
70%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
33%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)
67%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Barquereño scores more
51%
level
23%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
25%

Barquereño at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barquereño 2 – 3 Ribamontán al Mar

Ribamontán al Mar beat Barquereño 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañar in San Vicente de la Barquera.