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Barquereño vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barquereño
Barquereño
CANC
22:00
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 37Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barquereño31%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barquereño
1.22
Racing Santander II
1.48

Racing Santander II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 27 away

creates per match

Barquereño
1.58
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Barquereño
1.41
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw
57%
Barquereño or Racing Santander II
74%
Draw or Racing Santander II
69%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+
13%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals
70%
Barquereño 2+ goals
34%
Barquereño 3+ goals
12%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
77%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
43%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.22

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barquereño scores more
31%
level
26%
Racing Santander II scores more
43%

Racing Santander II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barquereño host Racing Santander II

May 9, 2020: Barquereño take on Racing Santander II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barquereño host Racing Santander II at Estadio El Castañar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.