Barquereño 2–1 Monte: Result & Stats

Barquereño

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monte

12/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barquereño50%

×Draw25%

Monte26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarquereñoExpected goals in this matchMonte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

Barquereño

1.61

Monte

1.08

Barquereño creates 49% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

0.76

1.41

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Barquereño

1.58

Monte

0.76

allows per match

Barquereño

1.41

Monte

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par

Monte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Monte →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw

74%

Barquereño or Monte

75%

Draw or Monte

50%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+

26%

Monte wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals

80%

Barquereño 2+ goals

48%

Barquereño 3+ goals

22%

Monte 1+ goals

66%

Monte 2+ goals

29%

Monte 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)

66%

Monte (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Monte away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Monte defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Monte attack 0.76 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barquereño scores more

50%

level

25%

Monte scores more

26%

Barquereño at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff