Barquereño 4–1 Montañas Pas: Result & Stats

Barquereño

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Montañas Pas

10/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barquereño70%

×Draw17%

Montañas Pas13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarquereñoExpected goals in this matchMontañas Pas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.00

Barquereño

2.50

Montañas Pas

1.00

Barquereño creates 150% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

0.59

1.41

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

Barquereño

1.58

Montañas Pas

0.59

allows per match

Barquereño

1.41

Montañas Pas

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par

Montañas Pas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Montañas Pas →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw

87%

Barquereño or Montañas Pas

83%

Draw or Montañas Pas

30%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+

47%

Montañas Pas wins by 2+

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals

92%

Barquereño 2+ goals

71%

Barquereño 3+ goals

45%

Montañas Pas 1+ goals

63%

Montañas Pas 2+ goals

26%

Montañas Pas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)

84%

Montañas Pas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Montañas Pas away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Montañas Pas defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.50

Montañas Pas attack 0.59 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Barquereño scores more

70%

level

17%

Montañas Pas scores more

13%

Barquereño at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff