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Baronie vs Sportlust '46 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
10/7/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 8Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baronie25%
×Draw23%
Sportlust '4651%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.17
Sportlust '46
1.77

Sportlust '46 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
Sportlust '46
1.35

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
Sportlust '46
1.24

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
Sportlust '46+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

Sportlust '46 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
49%
Baronie or Sportlust '46
77%
Draw or Sportlust '46
75%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
10%
Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
69%
Baronie 2+ goals
33%
Baronie 3+ goals
11%
Sportlust '46 1+ goals
83%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
53%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
33%
Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Sportlust '46 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + Sportlust '46 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sportlust '46 attack 1.35 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baronie scores more
25%
level
23%
Sportlust '46 scores more
51%

Sportlust '46 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportlust '46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 0–6 Sportlust '46

Sportlust '46 beat Baronie 6-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.