Baronie 2–0 JOS Watergraafsmeer: Result & Stats

Baronie

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

JOS Watergraafsmeer

1/29/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 20Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie37%

×Draw23%

JOS Watergraafsmeer40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaronieExpected goals in this matchJOS Watergraafsmeer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.73

Baronie

1.67

JOS Watergraafsmeer

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

1.09

creates per match

1.27

2.18

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Baronie

1.09

JOS Watergraafsmeer

1.27

allows per match

Baronie

2.18

JOS Watergraafsmeer

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par

JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

JOS Watergraafsmeer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Baronie or draw

60%

Baronie or JOS Watergraafsmeer

77%

Draw or JOS Watergraafsmeer

63%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+

19%

JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals

81%

Baronie 2+ goals

50%

Baronie 3+ goals

23%

JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals

82%

JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals

52%

JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)

48%

JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.24 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.27 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baronie scores more

37%

level

23%

JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more

40%

JOS Watergraafsmeer at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JOS Watergraafsmeer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff