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Baronie vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
12/11/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 18Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie30%
×Draw24%
Hsc 2146%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.31
Hsc 21
1.68

Hsc 21 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
Hsc 21
1.17

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
Hsc 21
1.52

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
54%
Baronie or Hsc 21
76%
Draw or Hsc 21
70%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
13%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
73%
Baronie 2+ goals
38%
Baronie 3+ goals
14%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
81%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
50%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
39%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + Hsc 21 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hsc 21 attack 1.17 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baronie scores more
30%
level
24%
Hsc 21 scores more
46%

Hsc 21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 0–3 Hsc 21

Hsc 21 beat Baronie 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.