Baronie 1–5 Blauw Geel: Result & Stats

Baronie

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Blauw Geel

4/23/2023

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 30Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie26%

×Draw22%

Blauw Geel51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaronieExpected goals in this matchBlauw Geel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.91

Baronie

1.31

Blauw Geel

1.91

Blauw Geel creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 100 away

1.09

creates per match

1.64

2.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Baronie

1.09

Blauw Geel

1.64

allows per match

Baronie

2.18

Blauw Geel

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par

Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

Blauw Geel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Baronie or draw

49%

Baronie or Blauw Geel

78%

Draw or Blauw Geel

74%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+

11%

Blauw Geel wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals

73%

Baronie 2+ goals

38%

Baronie 3+ goals

14%

Blauw Geel 1+ goals

85%

Blauw Geel 2+ goals

57%

Blauw Geel 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)

34%

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baronie scores more

26%

level

22%

Blauw Geel scores more

51%

Blauw Geel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff