Baroka FC 2–0 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Baroka FC

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Marumo Gallants

D. Ndhlovu 90'

K. Kgositsile 34'

5/5/2024

League #289 · Round 28Global Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Baroka FC57%

×Draw25%

Marumo Gallants18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baroka FCExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.77

Baroka FC

1.59

Marumo Gallants

0.77

Baroka FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.86

creates per match

0.67

0.86

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Baroka FC

0.86

Marumo Gallants

0.67

allows per match

Baroka FC

0.86

Marumo Gallants

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw

82%

Baroka FC or Marumo Gallants

75%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

43%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+

31%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals

80%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

47%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

21%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

54%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

18%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

76%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.86 + Marumo Gallants defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Marumo Gallants attack 0.67 + Baroka FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Baroka FC scores more

57%

level

25%

Marumo Gallants scores more

18%

Baroka FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baroka FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

K. Kgositsile

46'

T. Mokobodi← M. Mphambaniso

67'

C. N'Guessan← T. Skhosana

67'

S. Kumalo← D. Manaka

80'

D. Ndhlovu← S. Mtombeni

80'

K. Lekoloane← S. Sithole

88'

T. Ndlovu← K. Nthatheni

90+1'

F. Nyundu← K. Kgositsile

90'

D. Ndhlovu

Baroka

Marumo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Malesela

80'▲D. Ndhlovu←▼S. Mtombeni

80'▲K. Lekoloane←▼S. Sithole

90+1'▲F. Nyundu←▼K. Kgositsile

Baroka FC substitutes

NdhlovuLekoloaneNyunduShoziKhozaNtsoaneMangoaleMogalePatjie

Manager: M. Maleka

46'▲T. Mokobodi←▼M. Mphambaniso

67'▲C. N'Guessan←▼T. Skhosana

67'▲S. Kumalo←▼D. Manaka

88'▲T. Ndlovu←▼K. Nthatheni

Marumo Gallants substitutes

MokobodiN'GuessanKumaloNdlovuLedwabaMashaoNtamaneKgoetyaneSikhosana