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Baroka FC vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Baroka FC
Baroka FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
1/6/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Baroka FC45%
×Draw28%
Black Leopards27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baroka FC
1.31
Black Leopards
0.95

Baroka FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Baroka FC
0.81
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Baroka FC
1.03
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw
73%
Baroka FC or Black Leopards
72%
Draw or Black Leopards
55%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+
21%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals
73%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
38%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
14%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
61%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
25%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)
62%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.81 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Baroka FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baroka FC scores more
45%
level
28%
Black Leopards scores more
27%

Baroka FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baroka FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Baroka FC 1–2 Black Leopards

Black Leopards beat Baroka FC 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on January 6, 2019.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).