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Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FC 08 Homburg — League #86 2026

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg
M. Pourie 89'
S. Schmitt 33'
T. Korzuschek 23' (pen)
J. Petermann 73', 67'
P. Steinhart 7'
10/26/2025League #86League #86 · Südwest - 14Sportpark Johannisau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.39%
×Draw24%
FC 08 Homburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.53
FC 08 Homburg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.80
FC 08 Homburg
1.61

allows per match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.40
FC 08 Homburg
1.26

finishing

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par
FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. ↓

FC 08 Homburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or draw
63%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or FC 08 Homburg
76%
Draw or FC 08 Homburg
61%

Winning margin

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+
19%
FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals
78%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals
45%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals
20%
FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals
78%
FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals
44%
FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)
51%
FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 1.80 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.53

FC 08 Homburg attack 1.61 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more
39%
level
24%
FC 08 Homburg scores more
37%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. Steinhart
23'
T. KorzuschekPenalty
33'
S. Schmitt
67'
J. Petermann
73'
J. Petermann
89'
M. Pourie
Barockstadt
FC
D. Çimen
Manager: D. Çimen
Roland Seitz
Manager: Roland Seitz

Match Recap: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FC 08 Homburg

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. and FC 08 Homburg drew 3-3 in League #86 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: P. Steinhart (7'), T. Korzuschek (23' pen), S. Schmitt (33'), J. Petermann (67', 73'), M. Pourie (89').

The match was played at Sportpark Johannisau in Fulda.