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Barnstaple Town vs Frome Town — League #56 2026

Barnstaple Town
Barnstaple Town
FT
1 – 4
Frome Town
Frome Town
2/26/2022League #56League #56 · Southern South - 30Mill Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Barnstaple Town27%
×Draw21%
Frome Town52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnstaple Town
1.54
Frome Town
2.17

Frome Town creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barnstaple Town
1.80
Frome Town
2.35

allows per match

Barnstaple Town
2.00
Frome Town
1.29

finishing

Barnstaple Town+0.00on par
Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnstaple Town ↓

Frome Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Barnstaple Town or draw
48%
Barnstaple Town or Frome Town
79%
Draw or Frome Town
73%

Winning margin

Barnstaple Town wins by 2+
13%
Frome Town wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Barnstaple Town 1+ goals
79%
Barnstaple Town 2+ goals
45%
Barnstaple Town 3+ goals
20%
Frome Town 1+ goals
89%
Frome Town 2+ goals
64%
Frome Town 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Barnstaple Town (draw refunded)
35%
Frome Town (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnstaple Town at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnstaple Town attack 1.80 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Barnstaple Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barnstaple Town scores more
27%
level
21%
Frome Town scores more
52%

Frome Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Barnstaple Town 1–4 Frome Town

Frome Town beat Barnstaple Town 4-1 in League #56 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Mill Road in Barnstaple, Devon.