Barnsley 2–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League One

Barnsley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wrexham

1/1/2025

League One · Round 24Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Barnsley37%

×Draw27%

Wrexham35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Barnsley

1.25

Wrexham

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Barnsley

1.68

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Barnsley

1.30

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

65%

Barnsley or Wrexham

73%

Draw or Wrexham

63%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

16%

Wrexham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

71%

Barnsley 2+ goals

36%

Barnsley 3+ goals

13%

Wrexham 1+ goals

70%

Wrexham 2+ goals

34%

Wrexham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

51%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barnsley scores more

37%

level

27%

Wrexham scores more

35%

Barnsley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff