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Barnsley vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
12/26/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Barnsley36%
×Draw28%
West Brom37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.18
West Brom
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 163 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.10
West Brom
1.18

allows per match

Barnsley
1.22
West Brom
1.26

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
63%
Barnsley or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
64%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
15%
West Brom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
69%
Barnsley 2+ goals
33%
Barnsley 3+ goals
12%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
49%
West Brom (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.10 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

West Brom attack 1.18 + Barnsley defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barnsley scores more
36%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
37%

West Brom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Barnsley 1–1 West Brom

Barnsley and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on December 26, 2019.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.