Barnsley 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

3/8/2022

Championship · Round 24Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Barnsley39%

×Draw28%

Stoke City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Barnsley

1.24

Stoke City

1.13

Barnsley creates 10% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 179 away

1.13

creates per match

0.99

1.26

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Barnsley

1.13

Stoke City

0.99

allows per match

Barnsley

1.26

Stoke City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

67%

Barnsley or Stoke City

72%

Draw or Stoke City

61%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

17%

Stoke City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

71%

Barnsley 2+ goals

35%

Barnsley 3+ goals

13%

Stoke City 1+ goals

68%

Stoke City 2+ goals

31%

Stoke City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

54%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.35 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Stoke City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more

39%

level

28%

Stoke City scores more

33%

Barnsley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff