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Barnsley vs Stockport County — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
Stockport County
Stockport County
4/24/2027League OneLeague One · Round 43Oakwell
39%
Stockport County
model favours
38%24%39%

Both sides lean high-scoring (91% and 80% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley38%
×Draw24%
Stockport County39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.55
Stockport County
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.22
Stockport County
1.08

allows per match

Barnsley
2.06
Stockport County
1.89

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more
Stockport County-0.08on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
61%
Barnsley or Stockport County
76%
Draw or Stockport County
62%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
18%
Stockport County wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
79%
Barnsley 2+ goals
46%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%
Stockport County 1+ goals
79%
Stockport County 2+ goals
46%
Stockport County 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
49%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Stockport County defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.55

Stockport County attack 1.08 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more
38%
level
24%
Stockport County scores more
39%

Stockport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Stockport County
Balanced
52%Possession52%
74%Pass accuracy75%
13.1Shots12.4
1.48xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyStockport County

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Barnsley
2
Draws
2
Stockport County
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 100%
1–31–11–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
County
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley vs Stockport County — Match Preview

Barnsley face Stockport County on April 24, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnsley host Stockport County at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.