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Barnsley vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
1/26/2019League OneLeague One · Round 30Oakwell Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Barnsley47%
×Draw23%
Rochdale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.75
Rochdale
1.33

Barnsley creates 32% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 73 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Rochdale
1.37

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Rochdale
1.82

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
71%
Barnsley or Rochdale
77%
Draw or Rochdale
53%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
25%
Rochdale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
83%
Barnsley 2+ goals
52%
Barnsley 3+ goals
25%
Rochdale 1+ goals
74%
Rochdale 2+ goals
38%
Rochdale 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
62%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Rochdale defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rochdale attack 1.37 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barnsley scores more
47%
level
23%
Rochdale scores more
29%

Barnsley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Barnsley 2–1 Rochdale

Barnsley beat Rochdale 2-1 in League One on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Oakwell Ground in Barnsley.