Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barnsley vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
15:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
2/20/2027League OneLeague One · Round 32Oakwell
Big match
59%
Plymouth
model favours
20%21%59%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley20%
×Draw21%
Plymouth59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.15
Plymouth
2.12

Plymouth creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.22
Plymouth
2.17

allows per match

Barnsley
2.06
Plymouth
1.07

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more
Plymouth-0.67scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
41%
Barnsley or Plymouth
79%
Draw or Plymouth
80%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
8%
Plymouth wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
68%
Barnsley 2+ goals
32%
Barnsley 3+ goals
11%
Plymouth 1+ goals
88%
Plymouth 2+ goals
62%
Plymouth 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
25%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Plymouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plymouth attack 2.17 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Barnsley scores more
20%
level
21%
Plymouth scores more
59%

Plymouth at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (91% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
52%Possession48%
74%Pass accuracy68%
13.1Shots14.0
1.48xGBiggest gap2.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyPlymouth

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Barnsley
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 33%
0–33–13–00–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Plymouth
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with Barnsley hosting Plymouth. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnsley host Plymouth at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.