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Barnsley vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
4/10/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Barnsley35%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.24
Middlesbrough
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 186 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.13
Middlesbrough
1.38

allows per match

Barnsley
1.26
Middlesbrough
1.35

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
61%
Barnsley or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
65%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
15%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
71%
Barnsley 2+ goals
35%
Barnsley 3+ goals
13%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
73%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
38%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
47%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 186 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Middlesbrough defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Middlesbrough attack 1.38 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more
35%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
39%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Middlesbrough

Barnsley beat Middlesbrough 2-0 in Championship on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.