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Barnsley vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
10/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 11Oakwell
Big match
52%
Barnsley
model favours
52%24%24%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Barnsley52%
×Draw24%
Cambridge United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.73
Cambridge United
1.09

Barnsley creates 59% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 92 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
76%
Barnsley or Cambridge United
76%
Draw or Cambridge United
48%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
29%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
82%
Barnsley 2+ goals
52%
Barnsley 3+ goals
25%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
66%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
30%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
69%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barnsley scores more
52%
level
24%
Cambridge United scores more
24%

Barnsley at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Cambridge United
Balanced
52%Possession41%
74%Pass accuracy68%
13.1ShotsBiggest gap8.9
1.48xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyCambridge United

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Barnsley
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 33%
1–11–10–24–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
United
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley face Cambridge United (League One)

League One returns with Barnsley hosting Cambridge United. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnsley host Cambridge United at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.