Barnsley 0–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brentford

11/24/2020

Championship · Round 13Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Barnsley31%

×Draw27%

Brentford42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.34

Barnsley

1.12

Brentford

1.34

Brentford creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 71 away

1.13

creates per match

1.42

1.26

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Barnsley

1.13

Brentford

1.42

allows per match

Barnsley

1.26

Brentford

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

58%

Barnsley or Brentford

73%

Draw or Brentford

69%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

12%

Brentford wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

67%

Barnsley 2+ goals

31%

Barnsley 3+ goals

10%

Brentford 1+ goals

74%

Brentford 2+ goals

39%

Brentford 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

43%

Brentford (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Brentford defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Brentford attack 1.42 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnsley scores more

31%

level

27%

Brentford scores more

42%

Brentford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff