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Barnsley vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
12/4/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Barnsley29%
×Draw28%
Bournemouth44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.03
Bournemouth
1.33

Bournemouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 50 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.13
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Barnsley
1.26
Bournemouth
0.94

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
56%
Barnsley or Bournemouth
72%
Draw or Bournemouth
71%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
11%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
64%
Barnsley 2+ goals
28%
Barnsley 3+ goals
9%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
74%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
38%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
40%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Bournemouth defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnsley scores more
29%
level
28%
Bournemouth scores more
44%

Bournemouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Barnsley 0–4 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Barnsley 4-0 in Championship on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.