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Barnsley vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
5/1/2027League OneLeague One · Round 45Oakwell
49%
Barnsley
model favours
49%25%27%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Barnsley49%
×Draw25%
AFC Wimbledon27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.64
AFC Wimbledon
1.15

Barnsley creates 43% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 110 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
AFC Wimbledon
0.99

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.59

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
73%
Barnsley or AFC Wimbledon
75%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
51%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
26%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
81%
Barnsley 2+ goals
49%
Barnsley 3+ goals
23%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
68%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
32%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
65%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.59 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnsley scores more
49%
level
25%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
27%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barnsley
Balanced
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
52%Possession50%
74%Pass accuracy68%
13.1Shots10.1
1.48xGBiggest gap0.71
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyAFC Wimbledon

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Barnsley
2
Draws
1
AFC Wimbledon
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
3–30–24–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Wimbledon
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley face AFC Wimbledon (League One)

League One returns with Barnsley hosting AFC Wimbledon. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnsley host AFC Wimbledon at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.