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AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
8/23/2025League OneLeague One · Round 5The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AFC Wimbledon31%
×Draw25%
Barnsley44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.23
Barnsley
1.52

Barnsley creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 118 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
56%
AFC Wimbledon or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
69%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%
Barnsley wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
71%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
35%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
13%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barnsley attack 1.59 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
31%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
44%

Barnsley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Barnsley

AFC Wimbledon beat Barnsley 2-0 in League One on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.