Barnet 0–2 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Swindon Town

O. Risser 31'

R. Murray 13'

4/3/2012

League Two · Round 30Underhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Barnet49%

×Draw24%

Swindon Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.23

Barnet

1.73

Swindon Town

1.23

Barnet creates 41% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.90

creates per match

1.22

1.23

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Barnet

1.90

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Barnet

1.23

Swindon Town

1.56

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Barnet-0.15scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

73%

Barnet or Swindon Town

76%

Draw or Swindon Town

51%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

26%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

82%

Barnet 2+ goals

52%

Barnet 3+ goals

25%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

35%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

64%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.90 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Barnet defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnet scores more

49%

level

24%

Swindon Town scores more

27%

Barnet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

31'

36'

56'

63'

S. McGleish← I. McLeod

78'

N. Thompson← L. Rooney

82'

A. Connell← R. De Vita

Barnet

Swindon

35

Foderingh

2

McEveley

13

⚽

5

4

12

24

▼

Smith

19

▼

Rooney

23

▼

Vita

9

Benson

34

⚽

1

30

17

19

8

▼

4

10

15

12

23

▼

McLeod

22

May

36'▲R. Holmes←▼M. Byrne

63'▲S. McGleish←▼I. McLeod

Barnet substitutes

11Holmes7McGleish3Parkes18O'Brien25N'Diaye

56'▲S. Ferry←▼J. Smith

78'▲N. Thompson←▼L. Rooney

82'▲A. Connell←▼R. De Vita

Swindon Town substitutes

8Ferry15Thompson17Connell14Bostock26Smith