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Barnet vs Milton Keynes Dons — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Barnet
Barnet
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
R. De Havilland 77'
D. Devoy 85'
B. Johnson 71'
W. Grigg 36'
7/23/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barnet33%
×Draw23%
Milton Keynes Dons44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.56
Milton Keynes Dons
1.83

Milton Keynes Dons creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.33
Milton Keynes Dons
1.67

allows per match

Barnet
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons
1.78

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
56%
Barnet or Milton Keynes Dons
77%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
67%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
16%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
79%
Barnet 2+ goals
46%
Barnet 3+ goals
21%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
84%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
54%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
43%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.33 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.67 + Barnet defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnet scores more
33%
level
23%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
44%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
W. Grigg
71'
B. Johnson
77'
R. De Havilland
85'
D. Devoy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnet vs Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Barnet 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2022.

Goals: W. Grigg (36'), B. Johnson (71'), R. De Havilland (77'), D. Devoy (85').

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.