Barnet 1–1 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Harrogate Town

B. Assombalonga 23'

J. Muldoon 78'

11/29/2025

League Two · Round 18The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnet63%

×Draw19%

Harrogate Town18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.14

Barnet

2.29

Harrogate Town

1.14

Barnet creates 101% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.12

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Barnet

2.12

Harrogate Town

1.00

allows per match

Barnet

1.28

Harrogate Town

2.46

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less

Harrogate Town-0.40scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

82%

Barnet or Harrogate Town

81%

Draw or Harrogate Town

37%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

40%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

90%

Barnet 2+ goals

66%

Barnet 3+ goals

40%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

68%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

32%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

78%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Harrogate Town defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.29

Harrogate Town attack 1.00 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Barnet scores more

63%

level

19%

Harrogate Town scores more

18%

Barnet at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Belshaw

Harrogate Town · G

8.2

Match Events

23'

B. Assombalonga

45+5'

Anthony O'Connor

60'

S. McCoulsky← L. Sutton

69'

L. Ndlovu← C. Stead

70'

R. Browne← B. Assombalonga

78'

J. Muldoon↳ A. O'Connor

86'

O. Hawkins← K. Smith

90+4'

Ben Fox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetHarrogate

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots9

2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.07

7Corners3

17Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target2

6Off Target5

7Blocked2

12Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

346Total Passes324

204Accurate Passes197

59%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3