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Barnet vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
N. Ofoborh 67', 42'
L. Ndlovu 64'
9/20/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 9The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Barnet42%
×Draw24%
Grimsby35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.66
Grimsby
1.49

Barnet creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Grimsby
1.67

allows per match

Barnet
1.31
Grimsby
1.20

finishing

Barnet-0.01on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
65%
Barnet or Grimsby
76%
Draw or Grimsby
58%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
21%
Grimsby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
81%
Barnet 2+ goals
49%
Barnet 3+ goals
23%
Grimsby 1+ goals
77%
Grimsby 2+ goals
44%
Grimsby 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
55%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.66

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnet scores more
42%
level
24%
Grimsby scores more
35%

Barnet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
N. OfoborhBarnetBarnet · M
9.7

Match Events

22'
Daniele Collinge
28'
Mark Shelton
42'
N. Ofoborh↳ M. Shelton
64'
L. Ndlovu↳ I. Kanu
65'
C. Oduor← J. Walker
65'
D. Burns← J. Kabia
67'
N. Ofoborh↳ K. Smith
73'
G. D. Turi← E. Khouri
73'
J. Soonsup-Bell← C. Vernam
77'
E. Osadebe← R. Glover
78'
J. Sweeney← R. Staunton
80'
R. Stutter← C. Stead
81'
R. Galvin← K. Smith
81'
O. Hawkins← L. Ndlovu
86'
D. Adeniran← M. Shelton

Possession

52%Barnet

Shots

19Barnet

Pass accuracy

51%Barnet

Statistics

BarnetGrimsby
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots7
9Corners4
9Fouls6
Shots
19Total Shots7
5On Target1
8Off Target4
6Blocked2
13Inside Box5
6Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
294Total Passes285
171Accurate Passes156
58%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

League Two: Barnet 3–0 Grimsby

Barnet beat Grimsby 3-0 in League Two on September 20, 2025.

Goals: N. Ofoborh (42', 67'), L. Ndlovu (64').

Barnet controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.