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Barnet vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
15:00
Colchester
Colchester
12/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 21The Hive Stadium
Big match
54%
Barnet
model favours
54%22%23%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Barnet54%
×Draw22%
Colchester23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.94
Colchester
1.20

Barnet creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Colchester
1.12

allows per match

Barnet
1.28
Colchester
1.76

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less
Colchester+0.05on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
77%
Barnet or Colchester
78%
Draw or Colchester
46%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
32%
Colchester wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
86%
Barnet 2+ goals
58%
Barnet 3+ goals
30%
Colchester 1+ goals
70%
Colchester 2+ goals
34%
Colchester 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
70%
Colchester (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Colchester defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

Colchester attack 1.12 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barnet scores more
54%
level
22%
Colchester scores more
23%

Barnet at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Colchester
Balanced
55%Possession51%
68%Pass accuracy71%
13.6Shots11.3
1.72xGBiggest gap1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetColchester

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Barnet
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 71%
1–41–11–00–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Colchester (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Colchester. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Colchester at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.