Barnet 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Barnet

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

C. Weston 82'

T. Fosu 6'

9/17/2016

League Two · Round 8The Hive Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet52%

×Draw22%

Colchester25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.27

Barnet

1.92

Colchester

1.27

Barnet creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

2.03

creates per match

1.21

1.32

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Barnet

2.03

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Barnet

1.32

Colchester

1.81

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

75%

Barnet or Colchester

78%

Draw or Colchester

48%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

30%

Colchester wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

85%

Barnet 2+ goals

57%

Barnet 3+ goals

30%

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

67%

Colchester (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Colchester attack 1.21 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barnet scores more

52%

level

22%

Colchester scores more

25%

Barnet at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

T. Fosu↳ D. Wright

32'

J. Campbell-Ryce← A. Nicholls

34'

G. Kamara← S. Szmodics

61'

J. Akpa Akpro← S. Batt

69'

R. Watson← S. Togwell

69'

L. Kinsella← D. Wright

82'

C. Weston↳ M. Nelson

83'

K. Vincent-Young← T. Fosu

Barnet

Colchester

1

5

18

2

24

7

A

▼

Wright

10

▼

Szmodics

31

⚽

▼

9

28

11

12

5

6

A

Nelson

3

Johnson

14

▼

Togwell

8

⚽

Weston

32

Vilhete

11

Gambin

21

▼

Batt

9

Akinde

23

▼

Nicholls

Manager: M. Allen

32'▲J. Campbell-Ryce←▼A. Nicholls

61'▲J. Akpa Akpro←▼S. Batt

69'▲R. Watson←▼S. Togwell

Barnet substitutes

13Campbell-Ryce19Akpro7Watson1Stephens4Dembélé15Sesay16Taylor

Manager: J. McGreal

34'▲G. Kamara←▼S. Szmodics

69'▲L. Kinsella←▼D. Wright

83'▲K. Vincent-Young←▼T. Fosu

Colchester substitutes

32Kamara33Kinsella12Vincent-Young14Wynter16Akinwande17Johnstone29Bransgrove