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Barnechea vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Universidad de Concepcion
Universidad de Concepcion
8/20/2023Primera BPrimera B · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Barnechea45%
×Draw26%
Universidad de Concepcion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.44
Universidad de Concepcion
1.10

Barnechea creates 31% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 77 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
Universidad de Concepcion
0.99

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
Universidad de Concepcion
1.38

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Universidad de Concepcion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Universidad de Concepcion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
71%
Barnechea or Universidad de Concepcion
74%
Draw or Universidad de Concepcion
55%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
22%
Universidad de Concepcion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
76%
Barnechea 2+ goals
42%
Barnechea 3+ goals
18%
Universidad de Concepcion 1+ goals
67%
Universidad de Concepcion 2+ goals
30%
Universidad de Concepcion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
61%
Universidad de Concepcion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.38 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.99 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barnechea scores more
45%
level
26%
Universidad de Concepcion scores more
29%

Barnechea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnechea vs Universidad de Concepcion

Barnechea beat Universidad de Concepcion 2-0 in Primera B on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.